Poker Hand Ranks and Odds

This poker article is going to show you a few basic poker scenarios and explain the odds of different outcomes. The focus won’t be so much on strategy as it will be on explaining why things work they way they do in poker. This is actually a pretty interesting article so give it a chance before you let the bland title persuade you to hit the back button.

The purpose today is to show you why certain hands are ranked higher than others and the odds of those hands winning each pot. At the same time, this article will show you that even the strongest poker hands are never invulnerable. Hopefully this will help you learn to deal with bad beats and understand that sometimes “stuff happens” in poker.

Starting Hands

Strong starting hands should be raised before the flop because they win more than their fair share of pots. These hands are not perfect, but they win often enough that they should be played as strongly as possible before the flop. In these examples, we’re going to calculate the odds as if you got it all in before the flop and then we’ll show the long term expectation using 100 repetitions of each scenario.

AA vs. TJs

AA will win about 78% of the time against TJs all in before the flop. The high winning percentage makes it pretty obvious that you should get as much money in the middle as possible. If you get it all-in for $100 one hundred times against TJs, you’ll get the following results:

Win 78 times: Profit $7800

Lose 22 times: Lose $2200

Net Profit: $5,600

So it’s pretty clear that you should get as much money in the middle as possible with AA. At the same time, do not be surprised by the times you lose with AA. You’ll lose with AA almost a quarter of the time. Online poker players complain they always lose with AA but they don’t realize that they are supposed to lose almost one time in four. Those players may also have problems with playing big pairs after the flop.

AA vs. 5 Random Hands

Here’s an interesting scenario. If you get it all in with pocket Aces against five random hands, you will win about 49% of the time. Each of the other random hands will win slightly more than 10% of the time.

New poker players complain that in small stakes games, nobody ever folds and their strong hands get sucked out on. These players then decide to either play their hands weakly or to move up in stakes to where the players “respect their raises.”

The key fact these players are missing is that sometimes it’s profitable to put money in the middle even when the chances of winning are less than 50%. Let’s use another example of a hundred trials with each player putting in $100 before the flop:

Win 49 times: Profit $24500 ($500 x 49)

Lose 51 times: Lose $5100 ($100 x 51)

Net Profit: $19,400

In this example, you will lose more often than win but still come out way ahead in the long run. No matter how many players are in the pot, you should get as much money in before the flop as possible.

Postflop Hands

Once you’ve seen the flop, the odds of winning and losing solidify a bit. Three more cards have been revealed and there are only two cards remaining. These scenarios will show a few common situations and use trials of one hundred repetitions to show the long term results of each situation.

Overpair vs. Flush Draw

This scenario happens all the time and it’s always a nail-biter for the player with the overpair. Players complain that it feels like the flush draw hits every time in this situation. I must admit I feel this way sometimes too, but the numbers do not lie.

AdAs vs. ThJh on a 2h5h6c board

Overpair odds: 63% win

Flush draw odds: 37% win

If you’re holding the AA, here’s your profit after one hundred trials with $100 going in on the flop:

Win 63 times: Profit $6300

Lose 37 times: Lose $3700

Net Profit : $2,600

The profit here isn’t as big as it was in the last example but it’s still pretty clear that you’ll come out ahead against the flush draw in the long run. The lesson to take from this example is that you are far from guaranteed to win every time. The flush draw will hit almost 40% of the time, which is quite often. Your poker site isn’t rigged after all – you’re just going to hit bad runs in which it seems like every flush draw hits.

Overpair vs. Open Ended Straight Flush Draw

Here’s a fun little example that shows the power of certain draws. An open ended straight flush draw is actually a favorite against an overpair. Let’s use the following setup to explain this scenario:

ThJh vs. KsKc on a 8h9h2s board

The draw has a 56% chance to win the hand and the overpair has a 44% chance to win the hand. This is one of the rare situations in Texas Holdem in which a draw is favored to beat a made hand. That’s why I recommend playing open ended straight flush draws as hard as possible on the flop. Not only is there a good chance you’ll make the opponent fold but there’s a good chance you’ll win if he calls.

What It All Means

The purpose of all these examples and numbers is to make poker less of a mystery than it appears. Behind every situation in poker, there are solid numbers that explain the odds of winning and the expected value of each bet. You might not always know those odds at the time, but at least now those outcomes won’t be so surprising.

You really don’t need to know the odds of every possible scenario to make money in poker. All you need to know is that when you have strong hands, the odds are in your favor. Don’t fail to put money in the pot out of the fear of receiving a bad beat. In poker, short term results mean nothing. It’s all about making the right decisions over and over again over the long run. Do that and I can guarantee you will make more money than most people ever dream of.